Cubs, Brewers to begin key NL Central series
Baseball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Chicago Cubs are going to win a third straight National League Central title, they are going to have to pick it up offensively. This weekend would be a good time to get it going, as they return home for the start of a four-game set against the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers that begins tonight.
The Cubs, who last year led the NL with 855 runs scored, have struggled at the plate all season long and especially recently. They were blanked four times in the month of June and managed just one run on three other occasions.
All and all, though, the Cubs are just 3 1/2 games back of the Brewers in the Central race and enter this series on the heels of taking two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Chicago pulled out a series win on Wednesday, as Derrek Lee belted a two-run home run and Randy Wells tossed seven innings of one-run ball to lead the Cubs to a 4-1 win in the rubber match of a three-game series at PNC Park.
Wells (3-3) gave up six hits and fanned four batters to collect his third straight victory. Kevin Gregg retired the side in the ninth to pick up his 14th save of the year.
Kosuke Fukudome hit a solo homer and doubled, while Geovany Soto went 2-for-4 with a triple and an RBI single for the Cubs, who won for just the third time in their last 10 games.
"I have been trying to go out and throw strikes to keep the flow of the game going. The last three games I have been able to do that," Wells said.
Hoping to keep Chicago in the win column tonight will be Ryan Dempster, who is 4-5 with a 4.09 ERA. Dempster, a 17-game winner a season ago, has just one win in his last eight starts and is winless in his previous five outings.
On Saturday against the White Sox, Dempster did not factor in the decision but was far from effective, as he allowed five runs and eight hits in five innings of the Cubs' 8-7 loss.
Dempster lost to the Brewers the last time he faced them, but is 9-3 lifetime against them with a 2.79 ERA in 37 games (15 starts).
Milwaukee, meanwhile, was denied a sweep in its three-game series with the New York Mets on Wednesday, despite a sensational effort from Yovani Gallardo in the 1-0 loss.
Gallardo (8-5) absorbed the loss despite giving up only one run on five hits in seven innings. He also struck out a career-high 12 and walked two.
"He mixes all his pitches well for strikes," New York's Ryan Church said of Gallardo. "He keeps you off-balance. He keeps you guessing. He really has good control of his curveball and changeup. A lot of people were swinging at the curveball down in the dirt."
Ryan Braun went 2-for-4 for the Brewers, who lost for only the second time in their last six games.
Getting the call for the Brewers tonight will be right-hander Seth McClung, who is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA this season. After 28 relief appearances, McClung made his first start of the season on Saturday against San Francisco and did not get a decision, as he allowed three runs and six hits in four innings.
This will be McClung's first-ever start versus the Cubs, but he is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in 10 trips out of the bullpen against them.
Milwaukee has split its six meetings with the Cubs this season, but won in five of its nine visits to Wrigley a year ago.
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Chicago comes
Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Online Sportsbook Football Betting
LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP
With the first NFL preseason game less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about football once again at MySportsbook.com. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is currently the 5-1 co-favorite to win the award again alongside Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning.
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone after his all out assault on the record books last season. For those suffering from amnesia or were under a rock last football season, all L.T. did last season was set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (31) and total points scored (186) to go along with his 1815 rushing yards and 508 receiving yards. At 6-1, Tom Brady is next in line which isn’t surprising considering all of the firepower the Pats added over the off-season. With the addition of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker; it would be quite difficult for Brady’s numbers not to improve from last years 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns. There appears to be some decent value in Drew Bees at 10-1 considering he probably would have won the award last year if it wasn’t for L.T.’s record breaking season.
There is no reason to think the Saints will come back to earth this season and playing in a weak NFC, they should have as good a shot as any to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At 15-1, Donovan McNabb could also be worth a look. Remember, many felt he was the MVP of the first half of the season before going down with a season ending injury. Reportedly, he is in great shape and well ahead of schedule to return to form. Also, he could have some added motivation to put up big numbers this season with the Eagles using their first pick in the draft on McNabb’s future successor Kevin Kolb.
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