Phils eye first place in doubleheader with Marlins
Baseball Betting Lines
09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even when Roy Oswalt is off his game, he is still pretty darn good. The Philadelphia Phillies pitcher might get a chance tonight to put his team back into sole possession of first place in the National League East.
Set to pitch the back end of today's day/night doubleheader versus the Florida Marlins, Oswalt will try to win his fifth consecutive decision as Philadelphia kicks off a four-game set against Florida at Citizens Bank Park.
Oswalt was acquired from the Astros prior to the non-waiver trade deadline to boost a starting rotation that already features Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. The Phillies, who enter this set one game back of first-place Atlanta, hoped the acquisition of the three-time All-Star would help guide the club to a fourth straight NL East title and third straight NL pennant.
Philadelphia hasn't been in sole possession of first place since May 30, a position it hopes to hold after tonight if it can sweep this doubleheader and the Braves lose at Pittsburgh.
Though Oswalt was roughed up for a loss in his Phillies debut in late July, he is 4-0 with a 1.30 earned run average in six starts since and is coming off a victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday. The 33-year-old held Los Angeles to just a hit over 6 1/3 innings, but did walk six while striking out the same number.
"I was a little wild and had no command of my fastball," Oswalt said after that game. When I got in trouble I went with the breaking ball. That's the advantage of having four pitches -- when one isn't working you can go to another one. I was able to put enough movement on the ball to keep them off- balance."
The right-hander, who has allowed just one run over his last 21 1/3 innings, is 10-13 with a 3.01 ERA in 27 combined starts in 2010 and 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his three starts at Citizens Bank Park this season.
Oswalt did face the Marlins in a Phillies uniform on Aug. 5 and got a no- decision after yielding two runs over 6 1/3 innings. He is 6-4 with a 3.66 ERA in 13 career starts against Florida.
Florida will counter Oswalt with Anibal Sanchez, who has also pitched well as of late. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts and after consecutive victories, is coming off a no-decision versus Washington on Tuesday despite seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball. Sanchez also struck out seven to just one walk.
The 26-year-old is 11-8 with a 3.14 ERA this year, matching a career high for wins, and 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts versus the Phillies in 2010. Sanchez gave up five runs over six innings in his last outing at Philadelphia, getting a loss on April 16.
Today's doubleheader was made necessary when the middle contest of a slated three-game set in Philadelphia on June 9 was postponed. The first meeting between the two teams today is expected to feature a pair of pitchers making their first major league starts.
Going for Florida is Adalberto Mendez, who is making his MLB debut after pitching in the minors since 2003. The 28-year-old went 0-1 with a 3.14 ERA in 12 relief outings this year with Double-A Jacksonville before moving up a level to New Orleans, where Mendez went 5-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 28 games, including nine starts.
"He's a power pitcher, who can throw between 93 and 95 [mph]," Marlins interim manager Edwin Rodriguez told Florida's website of the righty he managed in the minors. "He's got an average changeup and slider."
Though Vance Worley is expected to make his first start in the day game for the Phillies, the third-round pick in 2008 did get his first taste of the majors back on July 24, striking out two over a perfect inning of relief versus Colorado.
The 22-year-old righty went 9-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 19 starts with Double-A Reading this year and 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Worley will try to help the Phillies get back in the win column after they failed to notch a three-game sweep of the Brewers on Sunday, falling 6-2 to snap a five-game winning streak.
Carlos Ruiz drove in both Philadelphia runs with a double in the second inning and Kyle Kendrick allowed five runs over just four innings as the Phils suffered just their second loss in 10 games. They now lead the NL Wild Card race by just two games over San Francisco after the Giants defeated Los Angeles last night.
The Marlins kept the Phillies' deficit for first place in the NL East at one after knocking off the Braves, 7-6, in 10 innings on Sunday to take two of three in the series.
Emilio Bonifacio led off the 10th inning with a triple, but a foul ball during his at-bat struck teammate Logan Morrison in the left cheek. Morrison was 3- for-4 with a pair of doubles, a triple, an RBI and two runs scored, but was unable to bat. Instead, Scott Cousins' drove in Bonifacio for the winning run with a single, the first hit of his big league career, for Florida's fourth victory in five games.
"I don't think I had time to really put pressure on myself," Cousins said. "I don't know if anyone really expected much out of me in that situation, but I did and hopefully the rest of the team did, and fortunately I was able to get the job done."
Hanley Ramirez clubbed a two-run homer and drove in three runs. The Florida shortstop is batting a scorching .512 (22-for-43) with four homers and 12 RBI over a 12-game hitting streak and is a career .400 hitter (10- for-25) off Oswalt with a pair of homers and five RBI.
The Phillies notched a three-game sweep in Miami the last time these clubs met and own a 7-4 edge in the season series.
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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.
Should be in:
Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?
Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.
Work left to do:
Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.
Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.
Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.
Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.
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