Ray carries Eskimos over Bombers; Lumsden hurts shoulder
Football Betting Lines
07/03/2009 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ricky Ray went 29-for-41 passing for 318 yards and a touchdown, as the Edmonton Eskimos edged the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 19-17, in the teams' season-opener.
Edmonton took the win after Winnipeg kicker Alexis Serna missed a potential game-tying field goal of 56 yards in the final seconds, giving new Esks head coach Richie Hall his first victory.
Andrew Nowacki caught seven passes for 79 yards and a score for Edmonton (1-0), which finished last season with a 10-8 record and defeated Winnipeg in the division semifinals before falling to Montreal in the division final.
Calvin McCarty ran for 27 yards on 12 carries in the win, but the Esks' running back corps took a hit when Jesse Lumsden left with an apparent shoulder separation. Maurice Mann had five catches for 87 yards for Edmonton.
Fred Reid rushed 13 times for 92 yards and a score for the Bombers (0-1), who played their first game under new head coach Mike Kelly.
Stefan LeFors threw for 174 yards on 14-of-31 passing in the loss, while Adarius Bowman caught five passes for 56 yards for Winnipeg, which went 8-10 and finished second in the East Division last season.
The Eskimos went ahead, 19-9, on Noel Prefontaine's 19-yard field goal with a little under eight minutes to play in the game. Mann helped Edmonton get into scoring territory after catching a 44-yard bomb from Ray while falling down.
But the Bombers came back, and scored just past the midway point of the quarter. Reid took a handoff and dashed around the right end, shedding a tackler before going into the end zone for the 16-yard TD. Serna's extra point brought Winnipeg within 19-16.
The teams traded punts, and Edmonton got the ball back with 2:40 to go just into Winnipeg territory. But an unsuccessful series led to a punt, as the Bombers took over with two minutes left on their own 20.
LeFors led Winnipeg downfield, and completed a 13-yard pass to Bowman with under half a minute to play, getting the Bombers to the Edmonton 42. Another short pass to Bowman got the Bombers to the 35 before a penalty moved them back five yards.
An Edmonton timeout set up the final kick, but Serna's boot sailed wide left and went for a single, leaving Winnipeg short at the clock ran out.
After neither team scored in the first quarter, each got a safety in the second. The Esks went up 9-2 at intermission after Ray's 19-yard TD pass to Nowacki in the final minute of the half.
The Bombers, though, pulled even after Tristan Jackson fumbled on a punt return. Shawn Gallant picked up the loose ball and ran it back for the score a little more than halfway through the third quarter.
But the Esks re-took the lead after Ray's one-yard TD run later in the quarter, making it a 16-9 game.
Game Notes
Kai Ellis had two sacks for Edmonton, while Don Oramasionwu had one for Winnipeg...Ray had one interception for the Esks...The Bombers had 162 rushing yards, compared to only 33 for the Eskimos.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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